[SystemSafety] Swiss train crash

[Peter Bishop]

Perhaps this cluster is not so surprising after all.

A quick check of past train accident rates
suggest 3-5 per year in Europe.
i.e. P_acc=  0.25 to 0.42 per month

So the prob of seeing 3 in a month are p_acc**3
i.e. 0.016 to 0.076

Or equivalently we expect to see a triple accident month
every ~ 1 to 6 years

Peter Bishop

M Mencke wrote:
> What is going on?
> 
> http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-23494203
> 
> At least 35 people have been injured, five of them seriously, in a 
> collision between two trains in western Switzerland.
> 
> The crash happened in Granges-pres-Marnand in Vaud canton, about 50km 
> (30 miles) south-west of the capital, Bern.
> 
> The regional trains collided head-on in the early evening.
> 
> The driver of one of the trains died in the incident and his body was 
> recovered from the wreckage early on Tuesday morning, Swiss police said.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
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