[SystemSafety] How Many Miles of Driving Would It Take to Demonstrate Autonomous Vehicle Reliability?

[Peter Bishop]

Re the practicality of testing, the important metric might be the number
of *crashes* rather than fatalities. After all there are a lot of
features inside the car that stop a crash escalating to a fatality (like
seat belts and air bags). These won't go away if cars become driverless.

According to the Rand graph, we would need 1 million miles for a 95%
confidence that the driverless car crash rate is a least as good as a
driven one.
i.e. a fleet of 100 cars driving 10000 miles each for one year.

Peter Bishop
Adelard

On 14/04/2016 20:52, Robert Schaefer wrote:
> http://arstechnica.com/cars/2016/04/car-makers-cant-drive-their-way-to-safety-with-self-driving-cars/
> http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1478.html
> 
> Question: Is there any sort of correlation between the study of safety
> in software in avionics and and the study of safety in software in
> automobiles?
> 
> I mean, are we (historically speaking) repeating ourselves? - The first
> as tragedy, the second as farce?
> 
> bob s
> rps at haystack.mit <mailto:rps at haystack.mit>.edu
> 
> 
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-- 

Peter Bishop
Chief Scientist
Adelard LLP
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