[SystemSafety] How Many Miles of Driving Would It Take to Demonstrate Autonomous Vehicle Reliability?

Daniel Grivicic grivsta at gmail.com
Tue Apr 19 00:18:31 CEST 2016


Could this help?

Self-Driving Cars, Predictability, and Law

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2747491

Autonomous or “self-driving” cars are vehicles that can drive themselves
without human supervision or input. Because of safety benefits that they
will bring, autonomous vehicles are likely to become more common in our
physical environment. Notably, for the first time, people will share
physical spaces with computer-controlled machines that can both direct
their own activities and that have considerable freedom of movement. This
represents a distinct change from our current context. Today people share
physical spaces either with machines that have freedom of movement but are
controlled by people (e.g. automobiles), or with machines that are
controlled by computers but highly constrained in their range of movement
(e.g. elevators). The movements of today’s machines are thus broadly
predictable. The free-ranging, computer-directed movement of autonomous
vehicles is an entirely novel phenomenon that will challenge certain
unarticulated assumptions in our existing legal structure.

Problematically, the movements of autonomous vehicles may be less
predictable to the ordinary people who will share their physical
environment — such as pedestrians — than the comparable movements of
human-driven vehicles. Today, a great deal of physical harm that might
otherwise occur is likely avoided through humanity’s collective ability to
predict the movements of others people. In anticipating the behavior of
others, we employ what psychological call a “theory of mind.” Theory of
mind cognitive mechanisms that allow us to extrapolate from our own
internal mental states in order to estimate what others are thinking or
likely to do. These cognitive systems allow us to make instantaneous,
unconscious judgments about the likely actions of people around us, and
therefore, to keep ourselves safe in the driving context. However, the
theory-of-mind mechanisms that allow us to accurately model the minds of
other people and interpret their communicative signals of attention and
intention will be challenged in the context of non-human, autonomous moving
entities such as self-driving cars.

This article explains in detail how self-driving vehicles work and how
their movements may be hard to predict. It then explores the role that law
might play in fostering more predictable autonomous moving systems such as
self-driving cars, robots, and drones.

On Tue, Apr 19, 2016 at 7:01 AM, Matthew Squair <mattsquair at gmail.com>
wrote:

> More that I don't see the value of multi million trip test programs that
> others might. ;)
>
> Matthew Squair
>
> MIEAust, CPEng
> Mob: +61 488770655
> Email; Mattsquair at gmail.com
> Web: http://criticaluncertainties.com
>
> On 18 Apr 2016, at 10:13 PM, Peter Bernard Ladkin <
> ladkin at rvs.uni-bielefeld.de> wrote:
>
>
>
> On 2016-04-18 14:03 , Matthew Squair wrote:
>
> But I'd personally be comfortable after a couple of months of realistic
> road trials.
>
>
> Hey, folks, we gotta volunteer!......... How you gonna line all those
> companies up, Matthew? :-)
>
> PBL
>
> Prof. Peter Bernard Ladkin, Faculty of Technology, University of
> Bielefeld, 33594 Bielefeld, Germany
> Je suis Charlie
> Tel+msg +49 (0)521 880 7319  www.rvs.uni-bielefeld.de
>
>
>
>
>
>
> _______________________________________________
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> systemsafety at TechFak.Uni-Bielefeld.DE
>
>
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