[SystemSafety] Approaching Cape Town

[Smith, Brian E. (ARC-TH)]

Even airlines have different appetites for the acceptance of risk.  Case in point…

Chambéry Airport or Chambéry-Savoie Airport, also known as Chambéry Aix-les-Bains Airport, is a small international airport near Chambéry, a commune in Savoie, France.  Commercial activities started at the airport in 1960.  Next to Le Bourget Lake and surrounded by mountainous terrain, the airport is in a perfect location for aviation enthusiasts.

Because Airline A had a large population of pilots, as a group they had difficulty in maintaining currency and familiarity with the challenging nature of the approach to that airfield.  Airline A decided to cease operations there.

In contrast, Airline B was a small operator with a limited number of pilots.  These pilots had much more frequent exposure to the conditions around Chambray including terrain and local orographic winds.  They opted to begin serving this challenging airport and accepted the risk in hopes of a market reward.

For both airlines the hazards were the same, but as Les indicates their risk tolerances were not equal.  This little piece addresses it from the perspective of discretionary risk in recreational activities:

All Risk Is Not Created Equal | Against the Herd<https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&ved=0ahUKEwjug7r1nJDTAhWE1CYKHUfiAf4QFggjMAE&url=https%3A%2F%2Fbassamsalem.com%2F2013%2F07%2F16%2Fon-risk%2F&usg=AFQjCNFBZe_uc-u3a5wGHSdxavGrbnE4eQ&sig2=XdXjhgh1olt5Iq3fTSQYXw>

As the article says, discretionary risk-taking is something "that we choose to do.  However, unlike a calculated risk that we’re taking in the hopes of a clear upside, this sort of risk typically has little quantifiable upside and only subjective, lifestyle-related benefits.  The downside, on the other hand, may be quite quantifiable.”

"Over the past decade or two, extreme sports have become a cultural phenomenon with everything from mixed-martial arts to downhill mountain-biking to extreme rock climbing.  They all involve tremendous risk of bodily injury and, frequently, death.  However, we take on this risk on a regular basis for the thrill and exhilaration of the experience.  Strangely enough, while we might take the risk on ourselves, we’d frequently advise our own children against it (a sure sign it’s a risk of luxury :-)).  Should we take on such risk?  Some of this lifestyle risk is necessary to bring excitement to life, but the line between a reasonable and an excessive amount of luxury risk is a gray one.  And, I must admit, the older I get, the less-inclined I am to take on such risk when I have so much of the other two types I’m already taking on :-).  At the very least, we should not make the mistake of confusing the types of risk with one another: taking on luxury risk under the guise of calculated risk is a recipe for disaster.”

Because of the wonderful weather we enjoy here in California, I still proudly ride my ‘risky’ motorcycle almost daily, but I do follow this philosophy…

Never let an airplane or a motorcycle take you somewhere your brain [or your eyes] didn't go five seconds earlier.

Comments?

Brian

On 4/5/17, 3:31 PM, "systemsafety on behalf of Les Chambers" <systemsafety-bounces at lists.techfak.uni-bielefeld.de<mailto:systemsafety-bounces at lists.techfak.uni-bielefeld.de> on behalf of les at chambers.com.au<mailto:les at chambers.com.au>> wrote:

Peter
Off topic? Are you sure?

The sailing community formed the backdrop for the paper I delivered at the
Safety Critical Systems Club conference in Bristol, 2015. The topic was risk
tolerance. My sense was that it was well received. There is therefore a high
probability that at least 200 functional safety professionals disagree with
you.
The thrust of the paper was that risk tolerance varies by community of
interest. It is particularly high in communities such as bluewater sailing
and aircraft carrier operations. Risk tolerance is a key determinant of the
classical ALARP. Factors that determine and justify risk tolerance are
therefore worthy of study. Projecting these concepts onto our everyday
experience we see entrepreneurs with risk tolerances approaching that of the
bluewater sailor. The difference is that they are risking our lives not
theirs. Hence my cautionary note in a previous post that we should think
this through before climbing into one of their driverless cars. With Lisa
Blair we have an opportunity to study it in real time as a major safety
incident unfolds. For this reason I would hope that every nose on this list
is glued to Lisa's blog.
Remember the risk management process?
Phase 1: We assess risk, phase 2: we erect barriers to prevent risk
transforming into incidents, Phase 3: should incidents occur we make plans
to reduce the severity of the outcome, Phase 4: when incidents do occur we
carry out our plans.
In 40 years of advocacy for spending money on safety I have found stories
such as this valuable in convincing those who allocate capital to loosen
their purse strings. I've also found that people at the coalface who operate
critical systems prefer to be instructed through stories. They detest and
despise equations Peter.

Lisa Blair is currently in risk management phase 4. A Facebook video you can
access through her blog indicates she's got everything under control, gently
motoring north to Cape Town in what looks like calm seas. I encourage
everyone to stay tuned.

Cheers
Les

-----Original Message-----
From: systemsafety
[mailto:systemsafety-bounces at lists.techfak.uni-bielefeld.de] On Behalf Of
Peter Bernard Ladkin
Sent: Wednesday, April 5, 2017 11:49 AM
To: systemsafety at lists.techfak.uni-bielefeld.de<mailto:systemsafety at lists.techfak.uni-bielefeld.de>
Subject: Re: [SystemSafety] Approaching Cape Town

Les,

On 2017-04-05 01:38 , Les Chambers wrote:
An update on Lisa Blair.
.....
Lisa's blog has stopped. I guess she's fully occupied at the moment. There
will be more news though.
Stay tuned.

While this is an important and interesting general story, it is manifestly
off topic. So, please, let's drop it.

PBL

Prof. i.R. Peter Bernard Ladkin, Bielefeld, Germany MoreInCommon Je suis
Charlie
Tel+msg +49 (0)521 880 7319  www.rvs-bi.de







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