[SystemSafety] ARVs and Risk Calculations

Peter Bishop pgb at adelard.com
Thu May 17 15:38:55 CEST 2018

Re Tesla accident data (as opposed to the Uber data we have been
discussing in the list), a recent blog -



In the US, there is one automotive fatality every 86 million miles
across all vehicles from all manufacturers. For Tesla, there is one
fatality, including known pedestrian fatalities, every 320 million miles
in vehicles equipped with Autopilot hardware. If you are driving a Tesla
equipped with Autopilot hardware, you are 3.7 times less likely to be
involved in a fatal accident.

That is a bit of a rash statement, with only one accident, you can only
be 26% confident the fatality rate really is 320 million/fatality or better.

Also it presumes that AP is used all the time - which highly doubtful.
We would need the time under AP control (which I believe Tesla collects)
to estimate the true accident rate.

Also I suspect the environments where AP is used is more benign than
than most other US environments (i.e. major highways). Certainly in the
UK the accident rate is lower for such highways.

So for a true comparison we need:

 fatalities/AP miles

compared with fatalities/human miles

on the same highway types where AP would be deployed


On 15/05/2018 10:46, Peter Bernard Ladkin wrote:
> https://abnormaldistribution.org/index.php/2018/05/15/automated-road-vehicles-and-risk-calculations/
>  uses Peter Bishop's numbers from 2018-04-11, which I checked (the system hosting the
> SystemSafetyList archive is currently halted, because of a climatisation failure in the Uni and we
> haven't restarted it until we know the failure is fixed).
> Don Norman and Peter Neumann both cautioned to be wary of numbers when I shared these with them, but
> I really do think that doing such a ball-park calculation as this is helpful.
> Prof. Peter Bernard Ladkin, Bielefeld, Germany
> MoreInCommon
> Je suis Charlie
> Tel+msg +49 (0)521 880 7319  www.rvs-bi.de
> _______________________________________________
> The System Safety Mailing List
> systemsafety at TechFak.Uni-Bielefeld.DE


Peter Bishop
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