[SystemSafety] Elon Musk shoots his mouth (arse?) off ...

[Olwen Morgan]

On 09/07/2020 16:26, paul_e.bennett at topmail.co.uk wrote:
> On 7/9/2020 at 3:00 PM, "Olwen Morgan" <olwen at phaedsys.com> wrote:
>> The BBC News app on my Ipad posted around an hour ago an item on a
>> statement by Elon Musk regarding "fully self-driving Tesla tech"
>> (sic).
>>
>> Musk is quoted as saying:
>>
>>
>> "I feel like we are very close"
>>
>> "I remain confident that we will have the basic technology for
>> level
>> five autonomy complete this year."
>>
>> "There are no fundamental challenges remaining."
>>
>> "There are many small problems."
>>
>>
>> If anyone wants an attributable quote from me on this subject,
>> that
>> quote is ...
>>
>>
>> ...    B*ll*cks!    ...
>>
>>
>> Olwen
> I wonder how well their claims stack up against the UL4600 requirements
> for provision of the safety case. That looks to be very thorough in its
> demands for evidence.
>
I was wondering whether someone would mention UL ... ;-)

I'm inclined to believe that the crunch will come with insurability. 
AFAI understand it, Level 5 autonomy means there is no need for any 
driver intervention and in principle no need for a steering wheel or 
manual brake controls. Somehow I can't see insurers buying that without 
uneconomically high premiums. It will be interesting to look at a Tesla 
that is claimed to have reached Level 5. If it still has a steering 
wheel and brake pedals, maybe we might conclude that Tesla has less 
confidence in its self-driving technology than its hype suggests ...

... and if it does have a steering wheel and brake pedals, then we'd be 
justified in asking where control authority lies and whether there has 
been adequate assurance to ensure that no "locus of authority" glitches 
are possible.

The "Driver assistance" level of autonomy is level 1. IMO, there is much 
improvement to road safety to be had from better driver assistance (at 
far lower cost) than going gung-ho for Level 5. It's like trying to fly 
faster than Superman when you've only just learned to crawl.


Olwen