[SystemSafety] Coronavirus mutations
Olwen Morgan
olwen at phaedsys.com
Fri May 22 20:57:16 CEST 2020
As a matter of evolutionary biology, it is not in the best survival
interest of a virus to mutate to become more virulent. If it does that,
then it risks killing its host before that host can achieve significant
dispersal of virus particles. Consequently, though there is a risk of
virus mutation rendering vaccines less effective, the tendency of
mutation to create decreased virulence will, to some extent, offset that
effect. Of course, in the end, this all comes down to numbers and the
relative sizes of the two effects.
Herd immunity is, however, not the only viable endgame. It is not yet
clear for how long any acquired immunity persists, nor what factors
affect the persistence time. In all epidemics there are several factors
that interact together to determine the course of the disease in any
given susceptible population. Further, /more intense/ second waves have
been a feature of several coronavirus epidemics and this possibility
gives rise to all sorts of uncertainty regarding the trajectory to the
end of the epidemic.
Following the advice of my elder son, who is both a post-doctoral
bioscientist and a qualified civil engineer, I watched the Gresham
lectures on infectious diseases, epidemics, and Covid-19 given by Prof.
Chris Witty. These are easily found on the Gresham College YouTube
channel. I heartily recommend them to any non-specialist. Also, at least
so far, I've found the Covid-19 coverage in /New Scientist/ and /The
Economist/ to be far better than in most other media titles.
regards,
Olwen
PS: The term "pharma karma" has already been coined in advance of Donald
Trunt possibly developing a Covid-19 infection and kicking the bucket as
a result of hydroxychloroquine making it worse. ... Far be it from me,
however, to recommend the promulgation of this usage. ... ;-O
On 07/05/2020 16:39, Derek M Jones wrote:
> All,
>
> One factor that is not getting much attention in vaccine
> discussions is the risk that Coronavirus mutations will
> significantly reduce the effectiveness of a vaccine; much like
> what happens with flu vaccines:
> https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/05/07/mutations-in-the-coronavirus-spike-protein
>
>
> Herd immunity, or at least tolerance, does appear to be the only
> viable end-game.
>
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