[SystemSafety] IET Complex Systems Safety Fct File

[Derek M Jones]

Peter,

> https://www.theiet.org/media/9475/safely-managing-the-emergent-properties-of-complex-systems.pdf

They start off repeating this folklore
"A high proportion of the total life cycle costs for a system is
committed by decisions made during early development"

The cited reference is
"INCOSE Systems Engineering Handbook. Version 4, 2015."

which I assume is Figure 2.4
"Committed life cycle cost against time. Reprinted with permission from DAU"

It's Figure 2.3 in a 2006 INCOSE report
http://www.las.inpe.br/~perondi/21.06.2010/SEHandbookv3.pdf

A Google search on
"Committed life cycle cost against time"
returns the image appearing in the book.

The cited reference is
"DAU. (1993). Committed Life Cycle Cost against Time. 3.1.
Fort Belvoir, VA: Defense Acquisition University."

The citation is to a university and what looks like
a figure caption.  Not very helpful.

The closest I could come was
"DEFENSE ACQUISITION GUIDEBOOK" from early 2000.
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.182.4354

The plots in Figures 3.1.2 and 3.1.4.1 (both labelled as
illustrative) show later costs being the greatest.
Perhaps an earlier version is more explicit.

I have found other papers and a book containing this
folklore figure.  They either cite
" Defense Acquisition University, 1993" or INCOSE,
or both.

Does anybody have a copy of the 1993 paper? I assume this
cites Boehm, the original source of this folklore.

-- 
Derek M. Jones           Evidence-based software engineering
blog:https://shape-of-code.com