[SystemSafety] How Many Miles of Driving Would It Take to Demonstrate Autonomous Vehicle Reliability?

Mon Apr 18 14:37:07 CEST 2016

I’m not sure whether I’m missing the point here, but …

-       If you are conducting realistic road-tests, aren’t you putting the public *just* as much at risk as if you carried out a well-monitored progressive deployment? Why burn all the resources running around test cars?

-       It seems to me that there should be some licensing obligation to have a “black box” recorder that monitors the success of the driverless vehicles. Perhaps there already is.

-       The biggest challenge of any licensed / manageably-safe deployment is to encourage improvements that make the system improve in safety as rapidly as practical as experience develops.

Cheers,
            Alvery

** The opinions expressed here are my own, not necessarily those of my employer.

From: systemsafety [mailto:systemsafety-bounces at lists.techfak.uni-bielefeld.de] On Behalf Of Matthew Squair
Sent: 18 April 2016 1:04 PM
To: martyn at thomas-associates.co.uk
Cc: systemsafety at lists.techfak.uni-bielefeld.de
Subject: Re: [SystemSafety] How Many Miles of Driving Would It Take to Demonstrate Autonomous Vehicle Reliability?

Sure, making a bunch of assumptions.

But I'd personally be comfortable after a couple of months of realistic road trials.

Matthew Squair

MIEAust, CPEng
Mob: +61 488770655
Email; Mattsquair at gmail.com<mailto:Mattsquair at gmail.com>
Web: http://criticaluncertainties.com

On 18 Apr 2016, at 5:54 PM, Martyn Thomas <martyn at thomas-associates.co.uk<mailto:martyn at thomas-associates.co.uk>> wrote:
On 18/04/2016 08:25, Peter Bishop wrote:

According to the Rand graph, we would need 1 million miles for a 95%
confidence that the driverless car crash rate is a least as good as a
driven one.
i.e. a fleet of 100 cars driving 10000 miles each for one year.

... under the same range and frequency of conditions as the comparable
fleet with human drivers.

Martyn

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