[SystemSafety] Autonomously Driven Car Kills Pedestrian

[Peter Bishop]

Based on the data, we could reject the hypothesis that Uber is as safe
as human-driven (1.18E-8) with 99.998% confidence.

And we could reject the hypothesis that Uber is better than 1 in a
million miles with 91% confidence.

So they have quite a way to go.

Peter

On 21/03/2018 23:29, Smith, Brian E. (ARC-TH) wrote:
> Note sure if such a comparison would pass muster statistically.  As of
> 2015, for human-driven passenger cars here in the U.S., there were about
> 1.18 fatalities per 100 million Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT).  Both the
> numerator and denominator are large enough to make the ratio reliable.
> 
> In 2017, driverless cars accumulated only about 485,000 miles of testing
> here in California.  If the single Arizona accident had happened in my
> state, CA, then the rate would be 1 fatal accident every 485,000 miles for
> ³autonomous² vehicles or ~200 times greater than for human drivers.  But
> the numerator is too small to be statistically reliable - basically
> fatalities are too rare at this time.  Yes/no?

-- 

Peter Bishop
Chief Scientist
Adelard LLP
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