[SystemSafety] AI in self-driving cars? What are they thinking?

Thu Feb 10 04:56:52 CET 2022

Michael

Thanks for the penguin fact check. My source was Joe Simpson, This Game of Ghosts (p 109)
Joe was reflecting on the deadly experimental aspects of mounting climbing while descending Les Courtes a mountain located in the French side of the Mont Blanc massif.
‘I didn’t like being the experimental penguin; I wish that I was doing the pushing.”

Joe provides a rich source of safety related metaphors in his many books on mountaineering. The most famous one of course being “Touching the Void“.
His reflections on death are particularly relevant to our profession.

I’m constantly on the lookout for stories and metaphors that can be deployed to convince non engineers of the importance of safety related initiatives. All of us are programmed to receive information in story form. The notion that my penguin tale may not be factual is irrelevant. Ask any professional storyteller and they’ll tell you, “Most  stories didn’t happen, they’re just true.“

Here is another example from Joe:

QUOTE
Climbing prepares one for death, leads one towards the edge of another world into which one can look without fear
…
Far from being separate from life, Reid [philosopher Thomas Reid] believes that death is really a smooth continuation from life, and for this reason the mountaineer can move easily to the edges of each world. In doing so he can discover the true beauty of life through having experienced the essential nature of death.
…
These clever theories about death have a strong taste of truth about them when contemplated at a comfortable distance. When compared with the reality of enraged grief taking place before you, they become no more than silly notions, wordplay, and climbing is once again reduced to the status of a mugs game.
UNQUOTE

The potential of AI may have a strong taste of truth about it when contemplated from a comfortable distance (by computer scientists). But viewed through the eyes of an auto crash victim’s family (in enraged grief) it will seem like useless tech-speak, the ultimate mugs game.
Les

> 
> Hi Les,
> 
> Always a pleasure to read your contributions - thank you.
> 
> Do you have evidence for penguins pushing each other into the water as a
> 'seal test'?
> 
> This site argues against your position:
> https://www.penguinworld.com/profpenguin/faq.html
> 
> All the best,
> 
> Michael.
> 
> Michael J. Pont
> 
> -----Original Message-----
> From: systemsafety
> [mailto:systemsafety-bounces at lists.techfak.uni-bielefeld.de] On Behalf Of
> Les Chambers
> Sent: 09 February 2022 05:51
> To: Peter Bernard Ladkin <ladkin at causalis.com>;
> systemsafety at lists.techfak.uni-bielefeld.de
> Subject: Re: [SystemSafety] AI in self-driving cars? What are they thinking?
> 
> Re: US tolerance of road deaths
> 
> As an Australian living in the bay area of San Francisco in the 1970s I was
> intrigued by the local laissez-faire attitude to road accidents. Reports
> would come over drive radio, "Hey there's been a wreck on the Nimitz freeway
> it's going to be a lousy commute." No details on injuries or deaths. 
> Later on, the classic clearance news item would go, "Hey the wreck on the
> Nimitz has been sanitised. It's gonna be a great commute!" Commendable
> stoicism.
> I segue to Antarctica where penguins gather on ice flows in great numbers.
> Before they dive into the water they inspect their environment for leopard
> seals. Leopard seals eat penguins. They have also been observed pushing one
> or two of their number into the water to validate their test by inspection.
> The USA, with its stoic acceptance of a high road toll, provides the perfect
> incubator for driverless cars. The demise of the odd experimental penguin is
> lost in the weeds.
> 
> OR
> You could look at this another way .
> 
> From 1580 to 1630 during the European wars of religion an estimated 40,000
> witches were burnt at the stake. In the UK Prior to 1967 you could be
> arrested for being a homosexual. An ancient Arab poet said, 'It is your
> manners that determine how civilised you are.' Our civility has evolved to
> the point where we no longer torture and kill people whose behaviour lies a
> few standard deviations east or west of some traditional norm. Neither do we
> throw virgins into volcanoes to appease the gods OR SACRIFICE HUMAN LIFE ON
> THE ALTAR OF INNOVATION. It's considered bad manners.
> Today's engineers are equipped with improved tools (I.e. simulators) and
> analysis methods to push the probably of dangerous failure out into the
> 10^-6 never never long before we hand our work products to the public. All
> the public has to do is make sure they are used. 
> And here lies the problem. 
> In 1580 burning witches was the right thing to do because the priest told us
> so. He was always right because he had a direct line to . you know who .
> Besides, he was the only guy in the village who could read. Today the same
> massive ignorance in the general public allows equally medieval practices to
> prosper. 
> The tech giants are the new age priests. But who'd want to be an
> experimental penguin?
> 
>> One thing which it only now occurs to me to mention is differing 
>> national tolerance for road fatalities. Britain had a population of 
>> 67.22m and 1460 road fatalities in 2020; Germany 83.24m
> and 
>> 2724 fatalities, and the US 329.5m and 38,680 fatalities.
>> 
>> That comes to about 1 death per 46K people in GB, 1 per 30K in D, and 
>> 1 per 8.5K in USA. The
> rate in 
>> the US is thus 5.7 times that in the UK, and 3.5 times that in D.
>> 
>> I do think that makes a difference, just as we have learnt that there 
>> are large differences
> between 
>> these countries in the way they deal with Covid-19. But I don't know what
> difference.
>> 
>> If GB had the rate of the US, there would be 8000 road deaths per 
>> year. And that is with seat
> belts 
>> and airbags. There have never been that in GB except in 1941, with 
>> just over 9,000, although
> 1966 
>> came close with just under 8,000. Notice that seat belt wearing only
> became mandatory in 1983.
>> 
>> PBL
>> 
>> Prof. i.R. Dr. Peter Bernard Ladkin, Bielefeld, Germany
>> Tel+msg +49 (0)521 880 7319  www.rvs-bi.de
> 
> 
> 
> --
> Les Chambers
> les at chambers.com.au
> +61 (0)412 648 992
> 
> 
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