[SystemSafety] How Many Miles of Driving Would It Take to Demonstrate Autonomous Vehicle Reliability?

[paul_e.bennett at topmail.co.uk]

On 18/04/2016 at 3:45 PM, "Mike Ellims" <michael.ellims at tesco.net> wrote:

[%X]

>A more interesting question is what do people think that a 
>satisfactory set of criteria for self driving cars would be? I’ve 
>seen proposals for a driving test for such vehicles mirroring the 
>driving test that new drivers have to pass which is reasonable a 
>one level but perhaps not at others, e.g. Alvery’s comments on 
>system improvement in as much as a new drivers skill increases as 
>they do more driving.
>
>
>
>As a first approximation I think it could include all or some of 
>the following
>
>-       Formal evaluation of the system design and architecture by 
>regulators as per flight control systems

For AV's I think that this will be essential before there is a general
release of such vehicles to the market. This should, I think, concentrate
on ensuring that the integrity of the sensor and actuator systems are
fully and properly evaluated to ensure that faulty or erring sensing and 
control functions are adequately compensated for. Also, an evaluation 
of the algorithms used for determining the course of action to be 
followed based on the system inputs. Auto-makers may have to be
much more open about their methods. I am sure we will see a raft of
new standards coming out to help that along.

>-       Skill evaluation testing, specific tests t(possibly large) 
>to show skill in maintaining lane, distance to vehicle ahead, 
>conformance to speed limits and so on.

Probably part of the regulators remit to set the standards by which
such tests can be carried out and results evaluated (see my comment 
about algorithm inspection above).

>-       Requirements for black box recording to evaluate 
>responsibility when accidents occur.

This may have to become an essential part of all cars built after a certain
date.

>-       Conformance fleet requirements for ongoing data collection 
>and evaluation.

Only the black box data following an incident must be gathered by the 
authorities and should not face tampering. The Auto makers can collect 
what other data they need within the constraints applicable to data 
privacy. I add that last bit as we will be dealing with systems that will
need sufficient security to keep private data private and only accessible
by those who are authorised for such access. Anonimised data presented
as statistical reports should be made available to systems designers in
order to improve systems integrity on an ongoing basis.

[%X]


Regards

Paul E. Bennett IEng MIET
Systems Engineer

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